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报告预测:2018年全年实际GDP增速约为6.8%

作者:admin  日期:2018-12-07 16:03  人气:
报告预测,2018年全年实际GDP增速约为6.8%。
 
The report predicts that real GDP will grow by about 6.8% in 2018.
 
 
 
7月8日,上海财经大学高等研究院发布2018年中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年中报告。报告称,2018年以来中国经济运行基本平稳,发展良好。报告预测,2018年全年实际GDP增速约为6.8%。
 
On July 8, the Institute of Advanced Studies of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics released the mid-year report on the analysis and forecast of China's macroeconomic situation in 2018. According to the report, China's economy has been running smoothly and developing well since 2018. The report predicts that real GDP will grow by about 6.8% in 2018.
 
 
 
报告指出,2018年以来,中国经济运行基本平稳,工业企业利润回升,就业形势稳定,价格基本平稳。虽然受基建投资增速大幅下滑影响,内需中投资增速持续下降,但进出口保持原有较高增速并支持制造业投资,房地产库销比处于历史较低水平也支撑了房地产的开发投资。
 
The report points out that since 2018, China's economic operation has been basically stable, profits of industrial enterprises have rebounded, employment situation has been stable, and prices have been basically stable. Although the investment growth rate in domestic demand continues to decline due to the sharp decline in the growth rate of infrastructure investment, imports and exports have maintained a relatively high growth rate and supported manufacturing investment, and the low ratio of Treasury to sales of real estate has also supported the development investment of real estate.
 
 
 
进入2018年以来,中国工业企业利润继续保持两位数增长,但相比去年同期增速有所放缓。截至5月份,规模以上工业企业实现利润总额2.7万亿元,按可比口径计算,累计同比增速为16.5%,比上年同期下降6.2个百分点;价格方面,2018年前5个月CPI累计同比增速为2.0%,PPI累计同比增速为3.7%,价格总体平稳。预计下半年受进口汽车关税下调和食品价格上升等因素影响,CPI同比增速将进一步下降,与PPI剪刀差有望进一步减小;进出口方面,今年前5个月全国进出口增速保持平稳高速增长,贸易顺差有所下降。服务贸易逆差为1271.2亿美元,比2017年同期增加256.3亿美元。
 
Since 2018, profits of Chinese industrial enterprises have maintained double-digit growth, but the growth rate has slowed down compared with the same period last year. As of May, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above the scale reached 2.7 trillion yuan, and the cumulative growth rate was 16.5% year-on-year, which was 6.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. In terms of price, the cumulative growth rate of CPI and PPI in the first five months of 2018 was 2.0% and 3.7% year-on-year respectively, and the price was generally stable. It is expected that the CPI growth rate will further decrease in the second half of this year, and the gap between CPI and PPI scissors will be further reduced. In terms of import and export, the growth rate of import and export in the first five months of this year has maintained a steady and rapid growth, and the trade surplus has declined. The trade deficit in services was $127.12 billion, an increase of $25.63 billion over the same period in 2017.
 
 
 
报告同时指出,诸多不确定性因素正逐渐显现或加大,从房地产、企业和家庭债务、消费、投资、外贸等各方面的数据和资本市场的运行趋势综合来看,中国经济不论是内部还是外部都存在一些不容忽视的风险点。
 
At the same time, the report points out that many uncertainties are gradually appearing or increasing. From the data of real estate, corporate and household debt, consumption, investment, foreign trade and other aspects and the operation trend of capital market, China's economy, whether internal or external, has some risk points that can not be ignored.
 
 
 
报告突出强调了家庭债务问题为实体经济带来的风险。据统计,2018年前5个月居民户新增人民币贷款中长期贷款2.04万亿元,占全部新增贷款的28.3%,远低于2016年同期的33.4%和2017年同期的36.3%。但是报告指出,同期居民短期债务累积的速度明显加快,表明中国家庭债务实际可能正在快速膨胀当中。2018年前5个月,居民短期债务新增0.86万亿元,而2017年全年新增量为1.84万亿元。而2015年与2016年两年间的累积新增短期贷款额仅为1.37万亿元。
 
The report highlights the risks that household debt poses to the real economy. According to statistics, in the first five months of 2018, households increased RMB loans by 2.04 trillion yuan, accounting for 28.3% of all new loans, much lower than 33.4% in the same period of 2016 and 36.3% in the same period of 2017. However, the report points out that the accumulation of short-term debt has accelerated significantly over the same period, suggesting that household debt in China may actually be expanding rapidly. In the first five months of 2018, the short-term debt of residents increased by 0.86 trillion yuan, compared with 1.84 trillion yuan in the whole year of 2017. The cumulative increase in short-term loans between 2015 and 2016 was only 1.37 trillion yuan.
 
 
 
报告提出,与家庭债务占GDP比重相比,家庭债务占可支配收入比重更能反映家庭债务的增长情况。据此计算,这一数字在2017年末就已经达到107%,这一趋势叠加收入分配持续恶化,对实体经济的拖累日益显现。报告进一步指出,在家庭可支配收入增速较低的省份,家庭债务复旦积累反而更加迅速,在重庆、宁夏、贵州与甘肃等地问题较为严重,值得关注。
 
The report suggests that household debt as a proportion of disposable income reflects the growth of household debt better than household debt as a proportion of GDP. According to this calculation, this figure has reached 107% by the end of 2017. This trend of superimposed income distribution continues to deteriorate, and the drag on the real economy is increasingly apparent. The report further points out that in provinces with low growth rate of household disposable income, household debt accumulates more rapidly in Fudan, and the problems are more serious in Chongqing, Ningxia, Guizhou and Gansu, which deserve our attention.
 
 
 
报告预测,2018年全年实际GDP增速约为6.8%,而经校正后的GDP增速约为6.5%。基准情形下,CPI增长1.8%,PPI增长3.4%,GDP平减指数增长2.6%,消费增长9.3%,投资增长6.5%,出口增长12.2%,进口增长21.2%。
 
The report predicts that real GDP growth will be about 6.8% in 2018, while adjusted GDP growth will be about 6.5%. Under the benchmark situation, CPI grew by 1.8%, PPI by 3.4%, GDP deflator by 2.6%, consumption by 9.3%, investment by 6.5%, export by 12.2% and import by 21.2%.
 
 
 
报告建议,在国内外经济环境出现较大不确定性,尤其是中美贸易战升级的当下,为了应对外部风险,在保持合理充裕的流动性、深化金融市场改革的前提下,应该发挥财政政策的作用,深化推动财税体制改革。
 
The report suggests that in order to cope with external risks, we should play a role of fiscal policy and deepen the reform of fiscal and taxation system, while maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity and deepening financial market reform, in the face of greater uncertainties in the domestic and foreign economic environment, especially the escalation of the Sino-US trade war.
 
 
 
报告据此提出短期内可望有效的几个政策选项:一是要加大企业税费减免力度,特别要减轻中小微企业负担,缓解中小企业融资难的现状,优化税收结构,改善营商环境,释放经济活力;二是进一步加快推进个人所得税改革,改善正在恶化的财富分配不均问题,释放消费活力;三是有序推进房地产税制度的实施,解决地方政府土地财政以及隐性债务问题,理顺中央与地方财政关系,稳定房地产市场预期,形成房地产市场健康发展的长效机制。
 
Based on this, the report puts forward several policy options that are expected to be effective in the short term: first, to increase tax and fee relief for enterprises, especially to reduce the burden of small and medium-sized enterprises, alleviate the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, optimize tax structure, improve business environment and release economic vitality; second, to further accelerate the reform of personal income tax; Improve the worsening problem of uneven distribution of wealth and release consumption vitality; Third, promote the implementation of the real estate tax system in an orderly manner, solve the problems of land finance and implicit debt of local governments, straighten out the relationship between central and local finance, stabilize the expectations of the real estate market, and form a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market.
 
 
 
对于当前错综复杂的世界变局,上海财经大学高等研究院中国宏观经济研究中心主任黄晓东表示,这一变局既是机遇也是挑战。中国需要从大的格局、长远视角、国际视野来把握机遇,化解挑战,以高水平开放倒逼深层次改革,最大限度地融入和巩固开放自由贸易体系。具体而言主要有以下做法:一是以更大的改革决心、力度,真正让市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用。二是以更大的开放决心、力度,积极主动扩大进口、大幅放宽市场准入、改善投资营商环境、加强知识产权保护等,以更高水平的对外开放倒逼国内制度体系改革,推动中国经济实现高质量发展。三是在更高水平的开放条件下提供制度基础的综合性改革,建设人民满意的服务型政府。
 
Huang Xiaodong, director of China Macroeconomic Research Center, Institute of Higher Studies, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that the current complex world change was both an opportunity and a challenge. China needs to grasp the opportunities and resolve the challenges from a broad pattern, a long-term perspective and an international perspective, push forward deep-seated reform with a high level of openness, and integrate and consolidate the open free trade system to the maximum extent. Specifically, there are the following ways: First, with greater reform determination and strength, let the market really play a decisive role in the allocation of resources. Second, with greater determination and strength of opening up, we should actively expand imports, greatly relax market access, improve the environment for investment and business, and strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, so as to force the reform of domestic system with a higher level of opening up and promote the high-quality development of China's economy. Thirdly, we should provide comprehensive reform of the system foundation under the higher level of opening up, and build a service-oriented government that people are satisfied with.
 
 
 
 
 
相关:三问中国经济基本面
 
Relevance: Three questions about China's economic fundamentals
 
 
 
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